Net Adjusted Winnings Graphs
Overview
Tournament players often want to know the expectation of their all-in decisions at a final table as it relates to prize pool equity. Net Adjusted Winnings calculates this prize pool equity, adjusted by adding the expectation of the hand to the actual results so the figure can be plotted against a graph.
PokerTracker 4 can only calculate Net Adjusted Winnings when all of the following are known:
- The prize pool is reported accurately by the online poker room, or entered manually by the user.
- The payout structure is included in a tournament summary saved by the poker room, or PokerTracker 4's Tournament Detection Engine has a record of the tournament structure.
- An all-in between two or more players occurs.
- The hole cards of all players with equity in the pot are recorded in the hand history.
- The all-in occurs at a final table.
Measuring Prize Pool Expectation
Net Adjusted Winnings does not calculate the EV (Expected Value) of your hand. It measures the difference between the expectation of prize pool equity when an all-in occurs at a final table and the actual results — not luck or skill.
This difference between reality and expectation is why you can win a tournament yet show lower expectation results than your actual prize pool winnings, and why you can lose a hand yet show higher expectation results than your actual winnings.
How Net Adjusted Winnings Is Calculated
Net Adjusted Winnings correlates three values: the ICM value of each chip, the size of the pot, and the all-in equity adjusted winnings in chips.
Independent Chip Model (ICM)
The ICM value above comes from the All-In Equity adjusted winnings in chips.
ICM is a mathematical model that calculates a player's prize pool equity at a tournament final table using stack sizes. For each finishing position, the probability of finishing there is multiplied by the prize amount for that position; summing these values gives the player's overall equity.
ICM is sometimes misunderstood to mean a hand simulator that helps a player make in-game decisions. PokerTracker 4's replayer includes an ICM Simulator to review your tournament play, as well as an ICM Quiz (available from the Tools menu) that trains you to recognize correct ICM push-or-fold situations.
An ICM Simulator is not the same as an ICM calculator. A simulator uses the Independent Chip Model to calculate optimal push-or-fold decisions, while a calculator determines the prize pool value of each chip by evaluating the remaining stack sizes, the payout structure, and the total prize pool. PokerTracker 4 includes a built-in ICM Calculator (available from the Tools menu), and also runs one quietly in the background via its Tournament Detection Engine, which predicts prize structures, buy-ins, and payouts.
PokerTracker 4 performs all ICM calculations needed for a hand's All-In Net Adjusted Winnings automatically, provided it knows the payout structure and the prize pool.
Net Adjusted Winnings Calculation Example
To best explain how Net Adjusted Winnings are calculated, we will use this hand history from a $100 winner take all Heads Up Sit & Go:
$98.12+$1.88|10/20 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
**SB: 620** (VPIP: 52.27, PFR: 39.76, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 99)
**HERO (BB): 380**
SB posts SB 10, HERO posts BB 20
Pre Flop: (pot: 30) **HERO has Qs Kd**
SB raises to 40, HERO raises to 100, SB calls 60
Flop : (200, 2 players) Tc Ac 6h
HERO bets 280 and is **all-in**, SB calls 280
Turn : (760, 2 players) 3h
River : (760, 2 players) Jh
HERO shows Qs Kd (Straight, Ace High) (Pre 71%, *Flop 54%*, Turn 73%)
SB shows 4c Qc (High Card, Ace) (Pre 29%, *Flop 46%*, Turn 27%)
**HERO wins 760**
This hand history gives us the key facts needed to calculate the ICM chip value, the All-In Equity expectation in chips, and the Net Adjusted Winnings prize pool expectation in currency (both Game Currency and My Currency):
- Prize pool: $200 total in buy-ins minus $3.76 in entry fees = $196.24.
- Total chips in play: 1,000 (T500 starting stacks).
- ICM value per chip at the start of the hand: prize pool ÷ total chips = $196.24 / 1000 = $0.19624. Each chip is worth $0.19624 in prize pool equity.
- Pot value once all-in: HERO has the smaller stack and can win at most 760 chips at showdown, so the pot is worth 760 × $0.19624 = $149.14 in prize pool equity.
- HERO's equity on the flop: 52.63% wins / 45.15% losses / 2.22% ties, which produces these ICM outcomes:
- Win: $149.14, occurring 52.63% of the time.
- Lose: $0 (winner-take-all HUSNG), occurring 45.15% of the time.
- Tie: $74.57, occurring 2.22% of the time.
When HERO wins, the pot is worth $149.14 in prize pool equity — but he doesn't earn his prize pool winnings yet because the tournament isn't over, so those earnings are "unrealized." When HERO loses, it costs the $100 tournament entry. When HERO ties, the expectation is split between the two players.
Net Adjusted Winnings Formula
Net Adjusted Winnings adds the expectation of the hand to the actual results. Even when HERO wins the tournament, he loses the cost of the entry fee, and that must be included.
Because this is a complicated topic, it helps to remember that this is NET Adjusted winnings — an adjusted expectation.
Net Adjusted Winnings Formula: (Outcome Wins × Probability) + (Outcome Loses × Probability) + (Outcome Ties × Probability)
The Hero Wins the Hand as Shown in the Hand History
First, calculate the Expected ICM using the formula above:
- ICM outcome when HERO wins = $149.14, occurring 52.63% of the time
- ICM outcome when HERO loses = $0, occurring 45.15% of the time
- ICM outcome when HERO ties = $74.57, occurring 2.22% of the time
(149.14 × .5263) + (0 × .4515) + (74.57 × .0222) = $78.49 + $0 + $1.65 = $80.14
The ICM Expectation is therefore $80.14.
In the actual hand HERO won, so his Realized ICM is $149.14 (the outcome when HERO wins).
With both values known, calculate Net Adjusted Winnings using Expectation − Realized ICM:
$80.14 − $149.14 = $69 BELOW the actual results on the graph.
Net Adjusted Winnings = -$69
What If the Hero Lost the Hand?
Suppose the cards fell differently and HERO lost the hand instead.
The calculation process is the same. The Expected ICM remains $80.14, but the Realized ICM becomes $0.00 because the tournament is over when the hand is lost and there are no prize pool winnings.
Calculate Net Adjusted Winnings using Expectation − Realized ICM:
$80.14 − $0 = $80.14 ABOVE the actual results.
Net Adjusted Winnings = $80.14
Yes, you read that correctly: HERO lost the hand, yet the result is positive. Net Adjusted Winnings measures prize pool expectation, and we expected to win in the majority of situations — in this case, the card distribution simply wasn't in our favor.
Is Net Adjusted Winnings Calculated Correctly?
Net Adjusted Winnings is a complex calculation that displays expectation measured in prize pool equity. Adjusted expectation and reality never meet — the figure has a highly specific statistical value rooted in probability theory. It is not a measurement of luck or skill; luck and skill cannot be measured, and Net Adjusted Winnings is not a substitute for them.
Net Adjusted Winnings is only a measurement of prize pool expectation, nothing more.
PokerTracker staff frequently receive questions about its accuracy. The calculation is only as accurate as the data PokerTracker 4 receives from your online poker room. If you believe a result is wrong, first work through the calculations in this guide manually and compare them against the reported figure. In the vast majority of complaints, the calculation turns out to be correct and the issue is a misunderstanding of how Net Adjusted Winnings works. On rare occasions there is a genuine error, usually caused by an improperly formatted hand history or a bug in the Tournament Detection Engine that tracks payout structures.
If you can prove an error by calculating the result manually, create a Support Ticket to notify our developers. Include all supporting evidence, such as the hand history and the relevant tournament summary if available. When no tournament summary is available, include the following in the ticket:
- The total prize pool.
- Confirmation that you are at the final table.
- Verification that the hand history contains the hole cards for all hands with equity in the pot.
Net Adjusted Winnings cannot be calculated when a player had equity in the pot but folded before the showdown of the all-in hands.